Emir BardakçıThe smartphone market in China faces a tumultuous year, and overall shipments will decline slightly. Yet in the midst of all the chaos of falling giants and price hikes in the supply chain, Xiaomi is the force of nature that remains stable.
New data from Counterpoint Research has come to light, showing while the likes of Honor and vivo are facing drastic falls in market share, Xiaomi is set to see strong levels of growth. Here is the complete picture of how 2025 looks for the industry and our brand.
TL;DR
- Xiaomi‘s market share is expected to increase by +4.3% by 2025, with a market share.
- Huawei is likely to lead in the overall ranking with a 16.9% market share.
- Apple is expected to lead in Q4 with iPhone 17, with a market share of 21.8% for that quarter.
- The price of DRAM memory is going up by as much as 50%, and this could slow the launch of budget smartphones.
The New King of China: Huawei Returns
This has been a long journey, but it’s now officially predicted that Huawei will regain the top position. The statistics reveal that the tech firm will lead the market in the entire year of 2025 in the Chinese market with a 16.9% market share.
This is a consistent improvement, with a 1.7% year-over-year growth. It appears they are doing everything right, and the market is responding to them by putting them ahead of the competition.
Xiaomi’s “Silent” Victory
While the headlines are about which vendor will come out on top, Xiaomi (and its subsidiary, Redmi) is perhaps the most stable of them all. We forecast a 4.3% increase in shipment share, from 15.0% in 2024 to 15.7% in 2025.
This is in sharp contrast to vivo, which is expected to decline by -6.7%, while Honor is expected to see a massive decline of -12.6%. While other brands are losing market, the Xiaomi ecosystem is still expanding and holding onto its loyal customer base.
Can Apple’s iPhone 17 Save the Day?
Apple is playing the long game. While they might miss the #1 spot for the full year, they are expected to absolutely crush Q4 2025. Projections show Apple hitting a massive 21.8% market share in the final quarter.
This surge is largely attributed to the upcoming iPhone 17 series. However, the much-rumored iPhone Air might not be the hit analysts hoped for, contributing less than 10% to Apple’s total sales.
Why Are Budget Phones in Danger?
Here is the bad news for consumers. Counterpoint warns that DRAM memory prices are set to rise by 40-50% in Q1 2025, followed by another 20% hike in Q2.
This puts immense pressure on manufacturers. To maintain profit margins, brands may be forced to cut back on low-margin budget devices. This means we might see fewer entry-level Redmi or POCO devices, or slight price increases across the board.
